This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. Oil price scenarios and the global economy andrew stoeckel and warwick j. Just six weeks ago, the world economy seemed well on the way to a nice. Why the oil price slump hasnt kickstarted the global economy. The oil shock of 199091 increased oil prices by only 50% and lasted for. The global financial crisis of 2007 has cast its long shadow on the economic fortunes of many countries, resulting in what has often been called the great recession. The economic emergence of the worlds most populous nation is. As is clear from the papers included in this ebook, there are strong differences. Oil and the global economy international energy forum. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to.
The scramble for africas oil by john ghazvinian, the economics of middle eastern oil by charles p. Pdf oral presentation for advances in tourism research stream at aiest. China is the worlds second largest consumer of oil after only the united. Oil and the global economy by kenneth rogoff, harvard university prepared for international energy forum secretariat meeting of ministers and oil company presidents, riyadh, saturday, november 19, 2005. The relationship between oil price shocks and chinas macroeconomy. Inflation in emerging and developing economies open knowledge. Pdf oil, the global economy and tourism researchgate. Rogoff makes the case for getting rid of most paper money. Why the oil price slump hasnt kickstarted the global economy there has only been a modest boost to global growth despite the oil price plummeting. Prepared for international energy forum secretariat meeting of. Regardless of the effects on the global economy, both short and longterm oil. Journal of the japanese and international economies 35 march.
The global contraction of 2008 the bursting of the u. The availability and price of oil are intimately linked to the global economy. Rebalancing the global economy yale center for the study of. Oil and the global economy request pdf researchgate. States is a highly sophisticated global financial center. May 2006 oil and the global economy by kenneth rogoff, harvard university an earlier version of this essay was presented at the international energy forum secretariat meeting in riyadh, saturday, november 19, 2005. If us imports fall, its interest in a stable middle east will shrink as that of china and india rises. Reinhart, who lectures at the international monetary. Thus, unless the world oil supply curve becomes flattened in the coming years, the world oil supply does not seem to be able to sustain a global economy expanding at. International economic and financial cooperation cepr.
All analysts of the global economys past trajectory and future prospects will. What can advanced economies possibly have in common with emerging markets when it comes to banking crises. Popular oil economics books meet your next favorite book. Request pdf on jan 1, 2006, kenneth rogoff and others published oil and the. Ha, kose, and ohnsorge offer the first booklength analysis of this remarkable achievement. Oil and the global economy by kenneth rogoff, harvard university. A pdf of the final report, once published, will be available at s.
The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emergingmarket economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. In fact, as reinhart and rogoff 2008b demonstrate, the antecedents and aftermath of banking crises in rich countries and emerging markets have a surprising amount in common. The global oil and gas exploration and production sector makes up a large portion of the global economy, and the growth of this industry is only expected to increase in the future. Kenneth rogoff writes that one of the biggest economic surprises is that the stunning drop in global prices did not deliver a bigger boost to global growth. It also doesnt take much teethbaring to send the global economy into a tailspin. The global economy is now more vulnerable to oil prices. Therefore, while the fall in oil prices since june 2014 is large, it is by no means unprecedented, and there is an extensive literature on the economic consequences of oil shocks for the global economy in.
A read is counted each time someone views a publication summary such as the title, abstract, and list of authors, clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the fulltext. Dvir for helpful discussions and research assistance. Roughtons hard work on production to enable this ebook to be produced. What percentage of the global economy is the oil and gas. Oil prices and global growth by kenneth rogoff project. Fund and the world bank, is the coeditor of the first. Reinhart, carmen and kenneth rogoff 2010, debt and growth revisited, voxeu. The author is grateful to martin sommer and mark allen for help on oil data, and to e.
Understanding the new global oil economy financial times. The author is grateful to martin sommer and mark allen for help. A catalogue record for this book is available from the british library. The world is drowning in cash, and it is making us poorer and less safe. Other more minor disturbances are also discussed, as are the economic downturns that followed each of the major postwar oil shocks.
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